Hey Everyone,
I have been looking over all of the weather data for the last couple days trying to get a grasp on this possible Freezing Rain event on Wednesday Morning. Note that I said Freezing Rain. Snow isn't on the table for Wednesday Morning, sorry but, just telling it like it is. I also decided to make a post on my blog here so I can better convey my message and add graphics into my post. I will also say that there is an outside chance at some snow on Thursday as Low Pressure will move Northeast off the Coast. Anyways, lets get into it.
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| This is the official National Weather Service Freezing Rain Probability Forecast. Notice the distance from 0-70% is less than 75 miles. This is the probability of at least .01" of Freezing Rain. |
Tuesday Night and early Wednesday morning, an area of high pressure in the Northeastern part of the Country will give us the "wedge", a layer of cold air at the surface.
The million dollar question is a two part question,
A.) How far south will the cold air make it by the time the moisture arrives ?
B.) How much moisture will we have ?
Here are my thoughts,
Timing and Temperature
Wednesday morning I think there will be areas of freezing drizzle and maybe light rain. However, I do not foresee this being anything significant in South Carolina. However folks in North Carolina, may be in for a little more ice. Areas from Winston Salem over to Raleigh and down to Fayetteville could see more significant ice that could cause issues.
By Wednesday morning in the Columbia area temps will be flirting with 32 Degrees and predicting where it will be freezing and where it wont is next to impossible. It all depends on how far south the cold air makes it and that is yet to be seen. Below is the latest GFS model run and note how at 7am Wednesday morning they have Columbia at 33 degrees and surrounding areas at 32 degrees. Its going to be that close and I wont know until as soon as maybe 12-18hrs in advance. So Stay Tuned on that.
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| 7AM Wednesday Morning Surface Temps. This is a model not a forecast. Note the "U" Shape feature in Southwestern Georgia into Eastern Alabama. Thats how far South the "Wedge" will come down the eastern Appalachians. |
How Much Precipitation
This storm system will not provide an abundance of rain during the time frame that we will be near the freezing mark. This is why I am not foreseeing anything significant for Wednesday morning. An area of Low Pressure will develop and move off our Coast by later in the day.
My Prediction
I think late Tuesday night and into early Wednesday morning there will be a large area of light freezing precipitation in the area and then will change over to rain during the day on Wednesday sometime in the late morning hours till around lunch time.
As of now I do not see any need to go out and do the bread and milk grocery store scramble.
All in all, whatever we get I do not see this being a significant winter weather event in the Midlands of South Carolina.
For Reference I have listed 2 more photos below with captions.
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| This is the Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index. This is a good ball park idea of what type of impacts you can expect given the accumulation amounts of Freezing Rain and with accompanying Winds. |
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| This is a great example of how different percipitation forms. This is a visual representation of what ive been saying for the last few days. |
In Closing,
I will be doing a forecast every day this week due to the impending storms and updates as needed. There is also a chance of "something" Thursday evening but, I am not even ready to talk about that. Hope everyone has a great evening and thank you all again for all the support.
Chris
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