Looking Ahead

Hello Everyone,

Last week I had posted a system I was watching for the potential to bring another blast of winter weather to South Carolina around March 2nd. Over the course of a few days after I made that post, things just didn't materialize and I feel extremely confident in saying that on March 2nd we will not see any snow or winter weather for that matter. Looking ahead, I have picked up on a little trend for March 6th, showing the possibility of a system developing in the Gulf of Mexico and moving across Florida and eventually off our Coast.

With that being said, just like last time I am not saying we will see a winter storm at this time. However the possibilities are there so I just want to keep everyone informed. Right now, I would give this a 10% chance of happening.

I also want to put a disclaimer out here..... If you see someone posting snowfall total maps for a system 7-10 days away please IGNORE THEM. Thats a joke, you simply cannot predict snowfall totals that far in advance.... I hate seeing those wishcasting forecasts on Facebook, Twitter, etc, etc.

Lets get into the Setup.

This is March 5th showing a piece of Energy (Circled) over Oklahoma and Northern Texas. This is the remnants of a Low Pressure System from the Pacific Northwest. It will be pushed our direction by High Pressure centered up in the Dakotas. 

Fast Forward 12 Hours on Match 5th and you can see this piece of Energy now in the Deep South and an area of Low Pressure starting to form off the coast of Jacksonville Florida.

By March 6th, you can see the area of Low Pressure and model data suggests CAD (Cold Air Damming) on the Eastern Slopes of the Mountains. CAD is highlighted in Yellow.

Model data on March 6th also suggest the entire state below freezing at the surface. 

March 6th, 850MB Temps are below 0C. This is not at the surface! The 850MB level of the atmosphere is in the lower Troposphere where snow forms. In order to get snow, temps must be below 0C. 

All of the above data comes from the Canadian Model. It has been really good this winter on its model data forecasts. If your wondering about the GFS and Euro. See Below.

• GFS - Also hinting at a Winter Storm however, keeping more of the colder air in North Carolina. It suggests March 4th-6th as the timing.
• Euro - Not suggesting anything of any significance. However, the deterministic snowfall models have been trending up for the March 4-6th time frame. 

In Summary, 

This is a long ways out but, something I am watching. It is entirely possible that we could get one last snowfall before spring and on the flipside, it is entirely possible that this could bust out and it could be 70 degrees on March 6th. It will just have to be watched over the next 5 days and see what happens with this. 

Like my goal is as always, I'm giving you guys the honest, sensible, and credible possibilities with the weather. I may not be first but, I wont be wrong! 

Thanks again for the continued support and spread the word! Without readers like you, none of this would be possible. 

Till Next Time, 

Chris Jackson

Follow Me on Twitter - ChrisJacksonSC