I know I have been saying I would get you guys a forecast and discussion on our upcoming weather emphasizing on our long term forecast through the next 10 days. I have been looking at a good bit of model data over the past couple of days and it seems that we will remain in a warmer pattern for the most part over the next 10 days.
Now, I know everyone wants to know, will we get another snow as the farmer almanac suggests ? As of right now, I can say with pretty decent confidence that I do not foresee any snow in the next 10 days. I know there is a bunch of "Posts" being shared on Facebook, particularly from this guy "Mikes Weather Page" with a photo of a model depicting another snowstorm towards the 26-28 of Feb. I then wrote him a nice comment on that post he had made and explained to him that it was a misrepresentation of the actual factual information. Apparently this guy doesn't understand what a Deterministic weather model is and means. I find it funny that I can't find that post on his page anymore after I called him out on what I think is an example of terrible weather forecasting and journalism. How this guy has 33K likes on his page is beyond me. He just merely copy and posts stuff with zero explanation of what people are seeing, giving the uninformed a wrong impression of future weather patterns.
I can tell you as of right now, no model, or even deterministic model for that matter is calling for any measurable snowfall through March 3rd. The Euro deterministic model on the 28th has 5 of 51 "Scenarios" showing measurable snow
However, the latest model suggests a shift in the "Polar Vortex" moving back south again giving us some cold weather but, just like last time long term model suggest that it has no precipitation with it.
If something changes that shows a greater chance of a snowfall happening I will tell everyone however, I am going remain with my main goal of these forecasts which is to be accurate, honest, and forthcoming about weather events. A man is only as good as his reputation.
Near Term - Severe Weather
I know as of tonight there has been a lot of talk about some pretty nasty weather here Thursday Night and into Friday. As of right now, I do not foresee anything that will be "severe". The dynamics involved just aren't going to be in place for a widespread outbreak of severe weather like there is going to be tomorrow over the South Central Plains and the Deep South Tomorrow. At most if we get some thunderstorms to develop, the main concern would be straight line winds, not tornadoes.
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| This is 7AM Friday Morning. What you will notice friday morning before this storm arrives will be the strong warm wind coming out of the SSW South-South-West. The low level jet will be pumping moisture into the area as shown below. |
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| This is a look at the Precipitiable Water map showing moist air being pulled up from the Gulf of Mexico giving us that warm wind Friday Morning. |
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| Here is a Temp map that shows the Temp gradient at 7AM Friday Morning. Notice temps in the mid 60's at 7AM. |
With the storm moving in sometime between daybreak and lunch, I just dont see there being enough instability in the atmosphere to give us some really bad weather. But enjoy the rain and maybe a few rumbles of thunder!
This is all for now, and I will get you guys something out tomorrow about the polar vortex possibilities and what that will mean for us...
Till Next Time,
Chris
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