I know a lot of you guys have been wondering what our chances are at seeing some winter weather on Tuesday. Some of the major media outlets have put chances of winter weather on their 5 day forecasts.
Im gonna be blunt and to the point from what I have seen today in every possible weather map and model there is in existence.
Facts
There is a chance of Winter Precipitation on Tuesday morning and through the afternoon.
There is a ton of model uncertainty in regards to the amount of moisture and temperatures during the day on Tuesday.
The only model that is depicting any kind of significant event for Tuesday is the current 18Z NCEP NAM Model.
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| Not a Forecast! Model Guidance Only! |
Above you see the NAM simulated radar for 4AM Tuesday Morning. It is depicting a large area of Snow across most of the State. I am very, very suspect of this for a multitude of reasons. I will list out below as we go below. See the next Photo and below for a description.
This is whats called a SREF Plume. SREF stands for a Short Range Ensemble Forecast. Each color is representative here of precipitation type in Columbia. (Green-Rain, Red-Freezing Rain, Blue-Snow, Pink-Ice,Sleet) At the bottom you will see a date and time stamp in Z time. You will notice around 12Z on Tuesday which is 7AM the snow chances jump to 44.89%. then later in the day the freezing rain chances increase to 59.6%.
Now most of you are thinking wow, looks like really good chances right ? Wrong.
Even though the chances are there, I will go to the next SREF Plume which is showing the amount of QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) which is measured in inches.
As you can see above on Tuesday the total QPF is forecasted to only be around .06" which isn't hardly anything.
With all of this being said, yes there is a legitimate chance of snow on Tuesday however my confidence for tonight will remain quite low given everything that I have looked at. Below I will show the official Snowfall and Freezing Rain Forecasts from the National Weather Service.
Both of these maps are showing the probability of each between tomorrow night and Wednesday at 7:00 PM
This will have to be monitored very closely over the next 12-16Hrs to see if any kind of model agreement can come into place. That would make me a lot more confident in seeing Winter Weather in South Carolina.
Hope everyone has a good night! Expect something tomorrow !
- Chris
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