Im back here on my blog format for tonight to lay out everything in a much better format versus Facebook. First off, I wanna say thank you everyone for all the positive feedback I have gotten. I have managed to get almost 20,000 page views on my Facebook Page in the last 4 days.
Getting on with the Nuts and Bolts of this impending Winter Storm.
It looks very likely that most of South Carolina will experience Winter Weather.
When: Monday Evening through Wednesday Mid Day.
Where: Will cover that below but areas North and West of I-95 should pay close attention.
What will Fall? A little bit of everything. Rain, Freezing Rain, Sleet, and Snow.
Impacts : Hard to say for now but there could be significant impacts such as dangerous slick roads, extended power outages, falling trees, And ice on everything imaginable.
Setup:
During the day tomorrow an area of Low Pressure is expected to begin to develop over Eastern Texas and Louisiana this area of Low Pressure is then expected to move ENE over the Deep South and by Monday afternoon will make its approach on South Carolina.
I am not expecting anything significant until after 7PM Monday for any portion of South Carolina and Western North Carolina. It appears that moisture will move into the area before then but, due to low dew points and some really dry air in place, it will take a few hours to get the atmosphere wet enough to support precipitation falling to the ground.
There has been some uncertainties in regards to the exact track of the Low Pressure. This is going to be pretty important. A jog 75 miles each way could mean a Winter Wonderland or just a soggy, raw day. I am hoping that the models come into better agreement over the next 18-24Hrs so I can have a better idea of what to expect.
Miller A or Miller B ?
Below this paragraph is the 18z GFS Model Run from today and it has hinted at this storm phasing and becoming whats called a Miller Type B Storm. There is also a Miller Type A Storm which has one centered area of Low Pressure that usually remains offshore. Im sure you all are asking yourselves What is a Miller Type B Storm ? Miller Type B storms usually involve the following during Cyclogenisis. (An area of Low Pressure Forming and Strengthening)
- 2 Low Pressures Involved (One Primary Low, and a Secondary Low)
- The Secondary Low develops along the coast as the Primary Low over Land weakens.
- Usually occurs in situations where CAD is in place. (Cold Air Damming or "The Wedge)
- The Secondary Low can become quite intense, quickly.
What to Expect over the duration of the event:
This will likely start out as all snow on Monday evening after 7PM and as Isentropic Lift increases we will see a "nose" of warm air overrun the cold air at the surface. This will result in a change over to Sleet and/or Freezing Rain on Tuesday morning. During the day on Tuesday as temps warm I would expect a changeover to all rain for a few hours before once again, turning back over to freezing rain. This will remain the same until early Wednesday as the system strengthens off the Coast. If this happens, we would see cold air wrap around the Low Pressure and have yet another changeover to all snow. With the Cyclogenisis of the storm there could be a band of heavy snow that sets up somewhere in North and South Carolina.
Other Models:
All of the other models are in agreement in Winter Precipitation but there a few differences in position, timing, and Precip Type.
Locations:
For now, I have listed below the official National Weather Service's map of Freezing Rain accumulating greater than .01" see your area with the corresponding percentages.
Until models come into better agreement I am not going to throw any specifics out there. We will save that for tomorrow.
Accumulations:
Given the model uncertainty as of now I cant say for sure who is going to get what and how much of it. Areas that do get the winter precipitation could get upwards of .10" of Ice and 1" of Snow.
In Closing:
I wouldn't be surprised at all for the National Weather Service to issue a Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm watch by 7PM tomorrow given the current information. I will be watching this like a hawk tomorrow and will do another write up tomorrow evening. Hope everyone has a great evening and be sure to check back tomorrow!
- Chris
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