Looking Ahead

Hello Everyone,

Last week I had posted a system I was watching for the potential to bring another blast of winter weather to South Carolina around March 2nd. Over the course of a few days after I made that post, things just didn't materialize and I feel extremely confident in saying that on March 2nd we will not see any snow or winter weather for that matter. Looking ahead, I have picked up on a little trend for March 6th, showing the possibility of a system developing in the Gulf of Mexico and moving across Florida and eventually off our Coast.

With that being said, just like last time I am not saying we will see a winter storm at this time. However the possibilities are there so I just want to keep everyone informed. Right now, I would give this a 10% chance of happening.

I also want to put a disclaimer out here..... If you see someone posting snowfall total maps for a system 7-10 days away please IGNORE THEM. Thats a joke, you simply cannot predict snowfall totals that far in advance.... I hate seeing those wishcasting forecasts on Facebook, Twitter, etc, etc.

Lets get into the Setup.

This is March 5th showing a piece of Energy (Circled) over Oklahoma and Northern Texas. This is the remnants of a Low Pressure System from the Pacific Northwest. It will be pushed our direction by High Pressure centered up in the Dakotas. 

Fast Forward 12 Hours on Match 5th and you can see this piece of Energy now in the Deep South and an area of Low Pressure starting to form off the coast of Jacksonville Florida.

By March 6th, you can see the area of Low Pressure and model data suggests CAD (Cold Air Damming) on the Eastern Slopes of the Mountains. CAD is highlighted in Yellow.

Model data on March 6th also suggest the entire state below freezing at the surface. 

March 6th, 850MB Temps are below 0C. This is not at the surface! The 850MB level of the atmosphere is in the lower Troposphere where snow forms. In order to get snow, temps must be below 0C. 

All of the above data comes from the Canadian Model. It has been really good this winter on its model data forecasts. If your wondering about the GFS and Euro. See Below.

• GFS - Also hinting at a Winter Storm however, keeping more of the colder air in North Carolina. It suggests March 4th-6th as the timing.
• Euro - Not suggesting anything of any significance. However, the deterministic snowfall models have been trending up for the March 4-6th time frame. 

In Summary, 

This is a long ways out but, something I am watching. It is entirely possible that we could get one last snowfall before spring and on the flipside, it is entirely possible that this could bust out and it could be 70 degrees on March 6th. It will just have to be watched over the next 5 days and see what happens with this. 

Like my goal is as always, I'm giving you guys the honest, sensible, and credible possibilities with the weather. I may not be first but, I wont be wrong! 

Thanks again for the continued support and spread the word! Without readers like you, none of this would be possible. 

Till Next Time, 

Chris Jackson

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Upcoming Weather Through 2/28

Good Evening Everyone,

I know I have been saying I would get you guys a forecast and discussion on our upcoming weather emphasizing on our long term forecast through the next 10 days. I have been looking at a good bit of model data over the past couple of days and it seems that we will remain in a warmer pattern for the most part over the next 10 days.

Now, I know everyone wants to know, will we get another snow as the farmer almanac suggests ? As of right now, I can say with pretty decent confidence that I do not foresee any snow in the next 10 days. I know there is a bunch of "Posts" being shared on Facebook, particularly from this guy "Mikes Weather Page" with a photo of a model depicting another snowstorm towards the 26-28 of Feb. I then wrote him a nice comment on that post he had made and explained to him that it was a misrepresentation of the actual factual information. Apparently this guy doesn't understand what a Deterministic weather model is and means. I find it funny that I can't find that post on his page anymore after I called him out on what I think is an example of terrible weather forecasting and journalism. How this guy has 33K likes on his page is beyond me. He just merely copy and posts stuff with zero explanation of what people are seeing, giving the uninformed a wrong impression of future weather patterns.

I can tell you as of right now, no model, or even deterministic model for that matter is calling for any measurable snowfall through March 3rd. The Euro deterministic model on the 28th has 5 of 51 "Scenarios" showing measurable snow

However, the latest model suggests a shift in the "Polar Vortex" moving back south again giving us some cold weather but, just like last time long term model suggest that it has no precipitation with it.

If something changes that shows a greater chance of a snowfall happening I will tell everyone however, I am going remain with my main goal of these forecasts which is to be accurate, honest, and forthcoming about weather events. A man is only as good as his reputation.

Near Term - Severe Weather 

I know as of tonight there has been a lot of talk about some pretty nasty weather here Thursday Night and into Friday. As of right now, I do not foresee anything that will be "severe". The dynamics involved just aren't going to be in place for a widespread outbreak of severe weather like there is going to be tomorrow over the South Central Plains and the Deep South Tomorrow. At most if we get some thunderstorms to develop, the main concern would be straight line winds, not tornadoes.

This is 7AM Friday Morning. What you will notice friday morning before this storm arrives will be the strong warm wind coming out of the SSW South-South-West. The low level jet will be pumping moisture into the area as shown below. 

This is a look at the Precipitiable Water map showing moist air being pulled up from the Gulf of Mexico giving us that warm wind Friday Morning. 

Here is a Temp map that shows the Temp gradient at 7AM Friday Morning. Notice temps in the mid 60's at 7AM. 

With the storm moving in sometime between daybreak and lunch, I just dont see there being enough instability in the atmosphere to give us some really bad weather. But enjoy the rain and maybe a few rumbles of thunder!


This is all for now, and I will get you guys something out tomorrow about the polar vortex possibilities and what that will mean for us...

Till Next Time,

Chris

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Winter Storm "Pax" - One To Remember

Greetings Everyone,

I know I said I would provide you guys with a wrap up of the storm along with how my predictions held up.

My first post on Facebook about the impending storm was on Feburary 8th, and I went into detail about the "Possibilities" of a major winter event in South Carolina. I really began watching the possibilities on Febuary the 6th, and continued to monitor computer models and began to develop a forecast by looking at specific patterns and the setup of the storm. By Feb. 8th, I felt comfortable enough to put it up and say this was a possibility and went ahead with it. 

As the storm continued to develop in Southern Texas, and it became apparent that a strong "Wedge" of cold air would be in place, and I felt that a Winter Storm would be very possible if not a certainty. All of the major computer models were calling for "Something" to happen however, they were very confused and throwing ridiculous scenarios out. While all of this was happening, some major media outlets were still reporting that this would be nothing but a cold rain, which I felt personally wasn't going to be the case.

I took a lot of flack from a lot of people questioning my weather knowledge and ability to forecast the weather. I can actually understand where some of those folks were coming from. They don't know me, they don't understand my passion for meteorology. I get it, I really do. It's understandable, in this day in age of social media journalism, it's hard to believe things you see. It would be no different than me seeing a post from someone saying that the NCAA will start paying football players next week. I would say no way, not going to happen, this person has lost their mind and move on about my business. 

I hope that I made some believers out of my posts concerning this storm before it was plastered all over every news outlet in South Carolina and invite you to like my Facebook Page, Things That Matter and to subscribe to this blog. I cannot promise that you will hear about the next big storm first from me but, if I begin to talk about the possibilities of a major weather event, there is an honest legitimate chance for it to happen. I would rather be right than first. 

I had forcasted 3-5" of snow and 3/4" of ice here in the midlands and I stood pretty firm on that through the first 24Hrs of the Storm. 

I then forecasted another round of snow to begin on Thursday Morning around 7AM and lasting till about Noon with possibly 2-4" of additional Accumulation. 

The wild card would be, where would it all set up ? 

I knew right here in the Columbia/Lexington area we would be right on the dividing line of Snow/Sleet/and Ice. I also knew 20 miles could have been the difference in 3" of snow or 1/2" of Ice and that was incredibly difficult to forecast. 

Here is a few maps of the total snowfall and ice throughout the state from the National Weather Service.

Given the fact that I knew the setup was going to be difficult, I think I did pretty well in all. This storm was crippling to the electrical infrastructure in the areas South and West of Lexington and I feel sure that will be a storm they will remember for decades.  

Here is a satellite image of the Storm in all its fury as it gets ready to exit South Carolina. Its a pretty awesome picture. Notice the higher cloud tops from Columbia and North-East.

Again,

Thank you guys so much for giving me the support to continue this and hope to have more weather to report on in the near future! Without readers and followers, none of this would exist, period. 

Thanks Again, 

Chris 
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A Name Is Everything

Greetings Everyone,

I have decided to give my blog a permanent name. I know I messed around with a couple other names but, none of them really made me happy. I never would've thought that so many people would have listened to what I have had to say about the weather among other things. After contemplation it makes sense, people will listen to Things That Matter. I intend now on keeping this blog going and building on it and hopefully you guys, my readers, will help me make this grow. I intend on posting stuff regularly here about topics that are relevant, and most important, Matter....  

My inspiration for the name is a book I have recently just finished reading. It bears the same name as my blog, Things That Matter by Charles Krauthammer. Charles is a Pulitzer Prize winning syndicated columnist, political strategist, and Doctor. I never would've dreamed I would have found myself actually reading books as a "hobby" but, after reading about 15 or 20 pages of his book I came to the realization that people will listen to Things That Matter. His book is not a traditional style story but, rather a book compiled of his writings and thoughts on popular and conversational topics that effect our everyday lives. I guess this was the philosophy and logic behind it, and if it worked on me i'm sure it can work on others. 

I know some of you may be thinking, this isn't original or I am copying someone but, when it comes down to it, people will listen to Things That Matter. 

Please continue to help my blog grow and suscribe to it at the bottom of the page. I will continue to adjust the format and layout to be the best it can be. 

Thank you for all your continued support!

Chris Jackson 

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Quick Update on Tuesday Snow

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen, 

Looks like everything has began to take shape here as I thought and predicted it would. As of 11:00am we've began to get a Sleet/Snow mix here in Lexington. I think this will continue to change over to snow in the next little while. We are right on the dividing line of Sleet/Rain and Snow. Points North of Lexington have been seeing snow all morning while the changeover is still occurring here. 

The biggest thing that will determine what we see is the temperatures up into the atmosphere at the 850mb Level. At the 850 Millibar is where the snow is formed so therefore, you have to have temps below freezing in order to get snow to fall, you also have to have temps at the surface cool enough to keep it from melting, which we do at this time. 

I know I talked last night about the HRRR or High-Definition Rapid Refresh Model that uses current atmospheric data to formulate and simulate the atmospheric and radar conditions up to 15hrs in advance. I am currently locked in on this model and everything seems to be correct as of 11am. 

These are the 850MB Temps as of 11AM. The white solid line is the freezing line. Points North of that line are seeing snow, folks on the line may be seeing a mix and people south are seeing just a cold rain.

The White Line is KEY

Below are more runs later today as it refers to the 850mb freezing line. 

This is at 1PM Today.

This line will continue change all throughout the day. So keep an eye on the weather outside! It could change over very quickly as it just did here at my house. In 30 minutes weve had 2 changeovers. So pay attention of how quick things can change!

By 5pm the line shift back north and we should just see some Rain or Sleet after that time. 

Below is a radar time simulation of 1PM today showing snow covering Lexington County and points northward. This snow could be heavy at times so pay attention!

Thats all for now, If you get in on the snow, you may see a quick accumulation on the grassy areas and a slush on the secondary roads.

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Winter Storm Update 7:00PM 2/10

Good Evening Everyone,

My apologies for not being able to see my previous post from Noon today. I was attempting to tweak the layout of this and got distracted and clicked the wrong button. It made me pretty made for about 10 minutes, and for a split second after I realized I couldn't recover it, I wanted to break the computer into a million pieces. I spent bout 2 or more hours on that post this morning. I guess that's life right ?

Everything today has remained pretty steady with the computer models. Now most media outlets are reporting the same thing I have been speaking of for the last several days. The biggest change I have noticed today is how the models are continuing to trend up for an onset of snow tomorrow.

I am not going to go do in depth as I did this morning.

For those of you seeing my stuff for the first time, I really like to have a graphical representation of what I am talking about so you may see a good bit of pictures here but, I think I can explain it so you can understand it.

The Onset Tomorrow - Tuesday Morning

Model trends today have continued to show this starting earlier tomorrow morning and possibly starting out as some light and maybe moderate snowfall throughout the day. The key is where will Rain/Snow line be tomorrow ? It will be interesting to see where this line sets up. When you wake up in the morning, you may see some light drizzle or rain around daybreak but, if models hold true by sometime around lunch most areas could be seeing light snow. By tomorrow night most moisture should turn back over to rain as warmer moisture from the Gulf of Mexico enters the area. Whoever gets lucky and gets in on the snow should expect around 1 or 2 Inches however, I would not be surprised if someone picked up a little more tomorrow. 

This is the NAM Model at 4pm tomorrow showing the possibility of a nice area of snow that has fallen in an area from Columbia North to Greenville.

Now this is just a model and not a forecast so don't be discouraged if you are not included in the snowfall. This could easily shift its track 50 miles either way depending on the exact weather conditions tomorrow morning.

 By tomorrow morning I will have access to some really cool stuff I can't wait to show off. It is called the HRRR or the NCEP High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model. This model will use current atmospheric conditions and depict a future radar and does a really good job of verifying and being correct.

I do not anticipate any problems on the roadways tomorrow during the day but, as the sun sets roads will slowly begin to deteriorate. 

 This is all for tonight as nothing else much has changed on Wednesday into Thursday. Remember, we are under a Winter Storm Warning until mid day Thursday. If you havent began to prepare, now is the time. This will be a significant event that we will remember for some time to come. 

I will be up early working on some specifics for tomorrow. I hope to have something comprehensive out by 12 or 1 tomorrow afternoon. Be sure to suscribe to my blog at the bottom of the page and you will get e-mail notifications of a new post. 

Till Tomorrow, 

Chris

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